May you have a wonderful Wednesday! It’s almost time for the World Series, RotoBallers, and we’re back with another day’s worth of betting picks for the MLB postseason. Be sure to follow me on Twitter because I can’t promise that I’ll always be able to get the additional plays written up in this article, but I will typically add anything else that I’m playing throughout the day.
If you don’t follow me on Twitter, you won’t know when I add new plays. The entirety of the RotoBaller staff has been putting in long hours to ensure that we are able to provide you with the most accurate betting picks, lineups, and props throughout the course of the season. We are delighted to have you here with us and are looking forward to a postseason that will bring us a lot of success in 2022!
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I’m John Brubaker, and I’d like to introduce myself to anyone who may be unfamiliar with me or who may have read some of my articles during the previous season. Since I started betting on Major League Baseball games four years ago, I’m excited to be entering my second MLB season working with the wonderful people at RotoBaller.
I’ve got a lot of experience to bring to the table. My very own betting model, which will assist me in generating value on run lines, totals, and money lines, is currently under development. On Wednesday, November 2, 2022, I will be providing my top betting picks for the Major League Baseball games that are scheduled to take place.
I am constantly working to improve my models in order to make them more accurate, and as the season goes on, I will share the data that I have on my personal Twitter account, which is @LucidMediaDFS. If you haven’t already, feel free to follow me, and if you have any questions, please don’t be bashful about asking them! Your direct messages can always reach me.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s analyze some baseball games. Unfortunately, we were unable to avoid a loss on our play yesterday, which occurred in the bottom of the first inning. Bryce Harper, being Bryce Harper, hit a slider thrown by Lance McCullers Jr. about 20 seats back into the right-field stands. However, I believe the total score for the first inning will be under, and since I believe it is in a good spot tonight, we will run it back.
Tonight’s starting pitcher for the Astros will be Cristian Javier, who has a record of 11-9 and a 2.54 earned run average. This season, Javier has not competed against the Phillies, but in the first inning, he was pretty darn good. Only two of his 13 starts away from home, and only six of his overall 25 starts, resulted in him allowing a run in the first inning. As a fan of the Phillies, I am definitely more concerned about Javier taking the mound than I was about McCullers pitching the previous day.
On the other side, the Phillies will start Aaron Nola, who has a record of 11-13 and a 3.25 earned run average. After allowing five earned runs over the course of 4.1 innings, it would be irresponsible of me not to point out that Nola was extremely fortunate to avoid taking the loss in the first game of this series.
It is essential to take note of the fact that he did not allow a run to be scored in the first inning during that start or any of the three starts he had previously made in the postseason up until this point. Now, out of his total of 35 starts, he has only given up a run in the first inning four times, and “The Bank” has only seen him pitch there three times.
The under is currently priced at -128 in the first inning at FanDuel Sportsbook. Even though that number is somewhat greater than the one from yesterday, I believe that it still represents a good deal. In this postseason, the Philadelphia Phillies have been tearing the cover off the baseball when they play at home. However, I believe that Javier has good enough stuff to keep the bats quiet, at least for the first inning.
According to my model, there is less than a 58.78% chance of scoring in the first inning, which results in “true” odds of -143. I have high hopes that Nola will be able to pick up where he left off during the National League Division Series, and that the Phillies will be able to take a commanding 3-1 lead.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-128) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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