Online gambling sites are currently busy revising their odds in preparation for what appears to be another banner year for the National Basketball Association (NBA).
Given that the bookies give at least five different teams a shot at winning the NBA Championship, it is clear that no one can accurately predict which team will be hoisting the trophy at the end of the Finals in the spring of next year.
The Boston Celtics, the Golden State Warriors, and the Milwaukee Bucks currently have the best odds of winning the NBA Finals. However, there are still more than one thousand games left to be played before we get to that point, and bettors have unlimited opportunities to get involved in the action in the meantime.
So, on a game-by-game basis, where are the best bets? We crunched the numbers on points scored over the last decade and compared them to what you could expect from the game in the 1990s here at Gambling.com.
What’s more, guess what? Games feature more points than ever before, as well as an increasing number of away victories.
Here are our essential NBA stats to help you get started with your punts in 2022/23.
Average NBA Points Per Game
The NBA is the world’s highest-scoring basketball league, and average points per NBA game have increased significantly since 2016.
Over the last six years, an average of 218.92 points have been scored per NBA game. The average was 200.70 per game between 2012 and 2015. And back in the 1990s, fans saw 199.64 per game.
The reason for this increase in points is thought to be the increased speed of basketball at this elite level, as well as the shooting of more three-pointers than ever before.
Non-traditional lineups, more room for players to flourish, and increased fitness all contribute to more points.
Home Team Points
In basketball, backing the home team’s points is fairly common on Australia betting sites, especially when a heavy favourite’s odds are so low that the profit margin isn’t worth the risk.
Over the last 30 years, the average number of home points per NBA game has steadily decreased, then increased.
At the start of the 1990s, 108.49 home points per game could be expected. During that decade, however, the total fell every year, reaching a low of 92.94 in 1999.
The figure didn’t break 100 until 2013, and over the last four seasons, we’ve seen an average of 111.27 points per home team.
This is significant because NBA bettors are increasingly likely to bet on the home team edging +110.5 points, especially if they are heavy favorites. Finally, that bet is beginning to pay off.
Away Team Points
The scoring trends observed with home teams in the 1990s and 2010s are replicated with away teams.
In the 1998/99 season, away teams averaged 89.56 points per game. That is still more than the EuroLeague average, but it is a poor reflection on the NBA at the turn of the millennium.
Nowadays, the average away team point in the NBA is around 109. The point differential between home and away has shrunk.
Whereas home teams scored 4.3% more points than away teams in 1991/92, it was only 1.7% in 2021/22.
The best NBA betting sites are noticing that games are becoming more competitive. However, this is not because home teams are scoring less. It’s because away teams now score 20 more points per game than they did 25 years ago.
Home Win Percentage in the NBA
As a result of all of this, NBA home win percentages have dropped dramatically over the last three decades. Our data shows that home bankers are now more scarce than ever.
While the big boys like Golden State, the Boston Celtics, and the Milwaukee Bucks are good bets to advance to the second round of the playoffs, it’s now common knowledge that almost anyone in the NBA can beat anyone else.
In the 1990s, the probability of a home win was set at 61.49%. That’s effectively a two-in-three chance of winning, giving basketball bettors some reason to back the hosts.
However, that percentage fell to a low of 54.65% during the Covid-19-impacted 2020/21 season, and it has yet to recover.
In the NBA over the last three years, home teams have won 54.60% of the time, making it more difficult for punters to back hosts with the same confidence they did previously.
Away Win Percentage in the NBA
Of course, a drop in home win percentage raises the away win percentage across the league, and punters are finding value in betting on the road team each evening.
Away teams won 34.21% of the time in 1991, but they now win 45.20% of the time.
The reason for this increase in away results is something that can be seen in professional team sports.
The disadvantages of playing away from home have decreased over the last three decades, just as they have in football, NFL, rugby, and baseball.
Teams can now fly in to play games, compete in roughly the same conditions, and then fly out without incident. Sports stars are so used to playing on the road that it doesn’t bother them.
Meanwhile, improved environmental standards for pitches, courts, and basic facilities have reduced home advantage even more.
Stay tuned for additional gambling guides, tips,, strategies, and insights throughout the season!
